For the past 30 years international monetary economists have believed that exchange rate models cannot outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting as a result of the 1983 paper written by Richard Meese and Kenneth Rogoff. Marking the culmination of their extensive research into the Meese-Rogoff puzzle, Moosa and Burns challenge the orthodoxy by demonstrating that the naive random walk model can be outperformed by exchange rate models when forecasting accuracy is measured by metrics that do not rely exclusively on the magnitude of forecasting error. The authors present compelling evidence, supported by their own measure: the 'adjusted root mean square error', to finally solve the Meese-Rogoff puzzle and provide a new alternative. Demystifying the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle will appeal to academics with an interest in exchange rate economics and international monetary economics. It will also be a useful resource for central banks and financial institutions.

The book presents arguments against the taxpayers'-funded bailing out of failed financial institutions, and puts forward suggestions to circumvent the TBTF problem, including some preventive measures. It ultimately argues that a failing financial institution should be allowed to fail without fearing an apocalyptic outcome.

The book presents arguments against the taxpayers'-funded bailing out of failed financial institutions, and puts forward suggestions to circumvent the TBTF problem, including some preventive measures. It ultimately argues that a failing financial institution should be allowed to fail without fearing an apocalyptic outcome.

The book presents arguments that are critical of the Basel II Accord, particularly the advanced measurement approach to operational risk. It is argued that the advanced measurement approach is not viable in terms of costs and benefits and is likely to distract financial institutions from the real task of managing operational risk.

The book presents arguments that are critical of the Basel II Accord, particularly the advanced measurement approach to operational risk. It is argued that the advanced measurement approach is not viable in terms of costs and benefits and is likely to distract financial institutions from the real task of managing operational risk.

Operational risk management is attracting the attention of academics and professionals worldwide. Academics are interested in this topic because it provides opportunities for the application of sophisticated statistical techniques, as well as lucrative opportunities for consultancy work and challenging questions on how to measure operational risk. For the practitioners, acquiring knowledge of operational risk is more than mere luxury as major banks all around the world have to be Basel 2 compliant within the next two years. Moreover, operational losses have, since the notorious collapse of Barings Bank, been haunting banks' top management, prompting a strive to devise measures that can reduce operational losses and the risk of business collapse. Indeed, it has been demonstrated that an operational loss event could lead to a fall in the market value of the affected firm that is greater than the loss itself. This new book is accessible to the average banker, while providing a general survey of the work on operational risk that academics will find invaluable.

Written by an experienced academic and practitioner, Operational Risk Management fills a gap in the information available on the Basel 2 Accord and offers valuable insights into the nature of operational risk.

This book is about exchange rate regime choice. The role played by the exchange rate in the economy is demonstrated, then the pros and cons of fixed and flexible rates are discussed. The classification of exchange rate regimes is examined from theoretical, practical and historical perspectives. Macroeconomic performance under various exchange rate regimes is assessed, followed by a survey of models of exchange rate regime choice. Some factual case studies are presented and related to the theoretical foundations, including the choice of exchange rate regime in the post-conflict case of Iraq.

This book explores the exchange rate regime choice and the role played by the exchange rate in the economy. Approaching the classification of exchange rate regimes from theoretical, practical and historical perspectives, the book discusses pertinent case studies, including the choice of exchange rate regime in the post-conflict case of Iraq.

Cross-border transactions involve a variety of financial operations, including arbitrage, hedging, speculation, financing and investment. These inter-related operations give rise to foreign exchange exposure and affect the overall financial performance of multinational firms. The book aims to provide an integrated treatment of multinational financial operations, whilst taking into account some real world complexities such as bid/offer spreads, transaction costs, capital rationing, and market imperfections.

Cross-border transactions involve a variety of financial operations, including arbitrage, hedging, speculation, financing, and investment. These inter-related operations give rise to foreign exchange exposure and affect the overall financial performance of multinational firms. The book aims to provide an integrated treatment of multinational financial operations, whilst taking into account some real- world complexities such as bid/offer spreads, transaction costs, capital rationing, and market imperfections.

In Foreign Direct Investment, Imad A. Moosa presents a survey of the vast body of literature and ideas relating to foreign direct investment that will be invaluable as a reference work for all these groups. He provides concise definition and analysis of the theories behind foreign direct investment, and considers factors affecting its implementation. The impact of foreign direct investment on economic development, host countries and the growth of multinationals, together with methods for evaluating foreign direct investment projects are discussed.

This book deals with the models and applications of exchange rate forecasting. It is written primarily for professionals with the objective of providing a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting. The book considers the business decisions requiring exchange rate forecasting and some related issues such as market efficiency and trading rules.

Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.

Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.